Carvana reported disappointing but not unexpected 3Q results. At this point it is difficult to gage the direction of market share in used cars but I believe Carvana can maintain and gain some going forward as it is one of the first sites people will go to when buying a used car. With that in mind the revenues should start to increase again in the coming years after this difficult period. Even so, Carvana's true worth should be around 12B total enterprise value. After accounting for debt, and share base compensation dilution (200m) we come up with a fair value of between $20-$30 per share. The risk is significant as the company is loaded with debt and could be a bankruptcy candidate. Maybe a small position with one time only average down given the current 1/3 risk reward ratio is appropriate.

Technically this is a falling knife, so maybe just let it wiggle for a while? It is near the 2017 IPO lows so it could be a bottom fish candidate soon for some.

Match has a portfolio of dating websites and apps - match, tinder, hinge, meetic, okcupid, pairs, plenty offish, ourtime, azar, hakuna. MTCH is a high return on capital business and dominates the space in its category. Based on estimated earrings MTCH is worth about $80 fair value. At this point is no longer a high growth business but being a high return on capital business, should be able to provide healthy returns for investors going forward through buy backs. There are concerns about competition and debt. With the large portfolio and user base Match is in position to fend off competitions by having better data and implementing changes as needed in case a competitor comes with new features that are popular with users. The debt is moderate at 3 billion given the current and anticipated EBITDA. The biggest concern would be if Match makes a large purchase, that would be indicative that they have no moat and will have to pay dearly to maintain a competitive advantage.

Technically it is not at the best spot to buy, it would be prudent to wait for 35 given that the market has recently rallied and mtch has lagged, earnings are going to be out in a couple of days and that could provide the catalyst for a big price move. If earnings are really good and rallies and holds above 45 could also be a good entry for long term.

ATUS provides broadband, video, telephony, and mobile services to residential and business customers mainly through 2 brands - Optimum in NY metropolitan area and Suddenlink in south central US. Fundamentally the equity part of the company is an option as the main part of the EV is debt. It has about 26.5b in debt and a market cap of 2.5b for a total EV of 29b. With revenue hovering around 9-10b a year for the next few years and EBITDA around 4b the company could reach and EV of 36-40b at a 9.5 EV to EBITDA which would give the equity a price of $20-$25 per share, a 400% return from current levels. The risk of total loss of capital is high as companies burdened with this much debt occasionally go bankrupt. It carries a BB- rating from S&P Global Ratings witch translates to a potential bankruptcy rate of as high as 7%. Bonds are trading at around 7%-12% YTM. Another thing to watch out for is funds that are long the bonds often will go short the equity as a hedge which keeps a lid on the shares. The way to play here is by buying when extremely oversold and take quick profits into any rally, maybe average down once only to give you a better chance at a decent price as the stock is so volatile. You definitely don't want to average more than once here, and certainly not marry the stock. Take a couple of stabs give it some time and if it doesn't work cut your losses and move on. The short interest is relatively high at 20% which: 1- confirms the theses of long bond holders using it as a hedge, 2- it adds fuel to the fire during an up move in case of good news.

11/03/22 Update: After reporting dissapointing earnings that missed both top and bottom line ATUS price dropped by almost 30%. The company reported losses to subscribers even though it had mentioned previously that it expected subscriber growth in the second half of the year. Clearly that is not playing out, and leaves the company in tough position going forward. With that in mind the company has assets that are valuable and could be target of an acquisition. With the new results we are updating the equity price to $16-$20. The main theses here remains the same an option play, buy bottoms, sell rallies. Average down only once, if that.

Technicals - Altice is trading at extreme oversold conditions but so is the market in general so a bounce back might come soon, the level to watch for in case of a rally is the 50% retracement around 7-7.50 area. I currently have a small position in the stock and might add one last time around 5, however I must say that during this process I have almost convinced myself that I am probably better off buying some options on Google or Tesla than owning this. With that said for me personally this makes sense for diversification purposes as I already own several tech companies including Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Snowflake.

MLI is a manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum and plastic, tubes, fittings, rods, bars, PEX plastic tubes. The second quarter was the 12th-consecutive period in which operating income advanced on a year-over-year basis. Management noted that the sharp increase in sales was fueled by strong growth in value-added services, and higher selling prices across all of its businesses. Momentum is expected to continue and fair value for the shares is around $115. It has a solid balance sheet with 200m in cash and no debt to speak of which plays vary well in the current growing rates environment.

Technically Mueller also looks appealing with the price near its 200 MA, which can also be used as a stop loss for traders.