Affirm is a buy now pay later technology company. Loans are mainly funded and issued by its originating bank partners, but AFRM also funds a small portion internally. Non payment risk is not entirely excluded, and loan loss provisions are ticking up. Big picture AFRM was able to capitalize from the pandemic buying spree that has dominated the last 2 years, but that effect is disappearing. This started to show in the current guidance where Affirm guided 1.65B vs expectations of 1.9B. There was some confusion on this by some media outlets stating expectations of 13.4B as seen here, and traders were confused at why such a huge drop after-hours. On the positive side Affirm announced a partnership with Shopify. In terms of valuation AFRM is difficult to value as it won't have earnings for the foreseeable future, a rough comparison to Paypal in terms of revenue and margins gives us a value of $28 per share. The uncertainty here is very high thus a huge margin of safety is required to even consider investing in Affirm.
Technicals are also difficult in AFRM as it is all over the place. However a dip near previous lows of $13.64 could make the stock more appealing. A short is not a smart idea at this point as it could snap back very quickly with news and very difficult to control risk although it is tempting as short term looks to be headed down.
