Snowflake is a cloud data platform provider that enables customers to consolidate data into a single source for data management and analytics, thus driving business insights. In terms of valuation SNOW is an expensive stock but at the same time the prospects are very bright. For the second quarter fiscal 2023 SNOW reported product revenue of $466.3 million, and total revenue $497.2 million vs the expectation of $467.15 million. More importantly retention rate of 171% which is almost unheard of was maintained and has been hovering between 168% and 177% for the past few quarters. Gross margins are around 75% and expected to go to 78% in the next 6 years. Looking forward the company expects product revenue of $502.5 million at midpoint for 3Q 2023. Looking much further ahead revenue is expected to grow by 50% per year for the next 3 years and 30% per year for the next 6 years reaching 10B in 2028. Snowflake touts an addressable market of $248B so there's plenty of room to grow. This kind of a growth rate can sustain a P/S of 10 to 20 which gives us a price range of $200 to $400 in 2025. It is definitely not at a discount as it is trading at $193 today, but when was Google or Amazon ever at a discount. When it comes to high growth stocks, value is not the first thing that investors look at. Things to watch out for is competition and slowing growth. Naturally growth will slow as it's not possible to sustain an 83% growth rate when you're making over 5B a year. But the thing to watch out for is a deviation from the 30% growth rate in the next 6 years. To put that into perspective the growth will have to be 55% 2023, 45% 2024, 35% 2025, 25% 2026, 20% 2027 and 15% 2028.
On the technicals side after todays 20%+ rally we are approaching resistance at $200 which also lines up with the recent trend line. Beyond $200 there's also resistance at the 200 day ma of $225 and at recent highs of $240. I am a long term investor of Snowflake and finding it difficult not to sell some into this rally, given current market conditions. Instead I sold some November $240 calls, maybe even just for the fact of making me feel like I did something. Sometimes we have to quench our own thirst for action, even though more often than not, it is best to sit tight.
